Its a big Election Day, and what happens after the ballots are cast in Tuesdays midterms could have a huge impact on New Jersey and the nation.
Avoiding the campaign season has been impossible this year as the high stakes control of Congress and dozens of gubernatorial seats have spawned huge spending from both major political parties and countless outside groups, many of which do not have to disclose their donors. Weve all been bombarded with non-stop TV spots invading everything from Jeopardy! to the World Series, fliers filling our mailboxes and ads pummeling our social media feeds and emails. More than $2.7 billion was spent on ads through the end of October, according to the Wesleyan Media Project.
These crucial elections at President Joe Bidens midterm have also raised the temperature of voters across the country as the major parties fight over who runs the U.S. Senate and House and hot-button issues like abortion, inflation, crime and the fate of democracy itself continue to rage.
Here are nine burning questions for this Election Day now that its finally in the hands of voters:1. Will Republicans win control of the House or Senate, or will Biden defy history?
First-term presidents usually wind up losing control of Congress in their midterms. All 435 seats in the U.S. House are up for grabs including 12 in New Jersey as are 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday said 80% of likely voters mentioned the economy as the most important issue on their minds, and that Republicans could better handle the issue by 52% to 38% over Democrats. Second was the economy at 77%, and they gave the GOP a 50% to 38% on that issue as well.
The generic ballot shows how tight the race is. In an NBC News poll, also released Sunday, 48% of likely voters said they preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress with 47% picking the GOP. The ABC/Post survey gave Republicans a 50% to 48% advantage.
The numbers gurus still give the GOP the early edge to win both the House and Senate. Biden is having none of that, saying Democrats will beat the odds, and trying to frame the midterms as a contest between his policies and those of Donald Trump and the Republicans.
This is not a referendum, this is a choice, and the more people we get out to vote, we win, Biden said Monday at a Democratic National Committee virtual reception. So lets go win. Lets get everybody we possibly can to vote. Get em to the polls.
MORE: Everything you need to know about N.J. midterm elections Tuesday, including all House races2. Will New Jerseys hottest House race foreshadow what happens across America?
The competitive contest between Rep. Tom Malinowski (ledt0 and Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. (right) could foreshadow which party controls the U.S. House come January.
All political eyes in New Jersey will be on the fierce battle between Democratic U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski and Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., a rematch of their razor-close race two years ago.
By all odds, Kean is the favorite. The 7th congressional district is more GOP after they redrew the map and moderate Republicans who helped Malinowski win because they were repulsed by Donald Trump could return to their roots.
But Trumpism and abortion remain a sore point for many in the district. Experts say what happens here could signal whether its a good or bad night for Republicans across the nation.3. Are other N.J. Democrats fearing a red wave?
At campaigns end, New Jersey Democrats are clearly nervous. Four years after Democrats flipped four seats in the 2018 Trump midterms, Republicans are threatening to regain some ground.
Rep. Andy Kim finds himself in a last-minute dogfight with big-spending yacht maker and ex-punk rocker Bob Healey in the 3rd District. Rep. Mikie Sherrill has pumped big bucks into her bid to retain whats supposed to be a safe seat in the 11th District. So has Rep. Josh Gottheimer, who got a last-minute boost from former President Bill Clinton on Saturday in a 5th District rematch against a Republican he easily beat in 2020.
A new congressional map was supposed to favor Democrats in nine of the 12 congressional districts. How many seats the party will keep is the question.
MORE: A year after Murphys election scare, N.J. Dems are clearly worried going into Tuesdays midterms4. What issue wins the day: abortion or inflation?
A Tom Malinowski sign in Westfield.Ed Murray | NJ Advance Media for
All the polls show inflation and the economy, issues Republicans have hammered, are at the top of voter concerns.
But women voters outraged by the U.S. Supreme Courts ruling overturning Roe v. Wade and GOP talk of outlawing abortion nationwide have vowed to show up to the polls in droves, and its hard to find a Democratic ad that hasnt mentioned reproductive rights.
One New Jersey poll released last week cast doubts on abortion as an issue that will move the needle for Democrats. Still, another pollster says the number one spot for the economy doesnt erase abortion rights as a quiet force.5. Will Jerseys Dr. Oz get a permanent residence in Pennsylvania?
Democrat John Fetterman (left) and Republican Mehmet Oz (right) are facing off for an open U.S. Senate seat representing Pennsylvania.AP File Photos
One of the nations biggest scraps for the Senate is right across the Delaware River in Pennsylvania, where TV doctor Mehmet Oz fled his Jersey mansion (at least for now) to jump into politics. Hes now facing Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman for an open seat in the upper house of Congress.
For Jersey residents who get Philly TV stations, the campaign attack ads seem like theyre on a never-ending loop. And the stakes are incredibly high: It could determine which party controls the Senate.
Outside groups alone have poured $240.3 million into the Senate race, according to the research group OpenSecrets. That comes out to $35 for every voter who cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential election.6. How many Trump-endorsed candidates and election deniers will win?
A sign in Pittstown supporting former President Donald Trump.Patti Sapone | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com
About 300 candidates including three from New Jersey, according to the Washington Post still say the 2020 presidential election wasnt legit. A whopping 58% of New Jersey Republicans feel the same, according to a recent poll.
And that means Donald Trump simply hasnt gone away, and America remains divided. Will his endorsed candidates win? The fights go all the way to school board elections, where theres harsh rhetoric even in moderate New Jersey.
It could have a big impact on the future of America as well as the calculations made by Jersey politicians thinking of White House runs, including former Gov. Chris Christie.7. Will voters show up?
In the end, its all about getting out the vote. New Jersey has way more Democrats than Republicans, but that doesnt matter if those Dems dont show up. In 2018 at Trumps midterm, 55% of registered voters cast ballots in New Jersey, completing a near-sweep for Democrats. Voter turnout swelled to 76% in the 2020 presidential year but dipped to 40% in last years gubernatorial election. Voter turnout could make the difference this year.
In Sundays NBC poll, Democrats caught up with Republicans on voter enthusiasm, with 73% of likely voters in both parties showing high interest in the midterms.8. How will Tuesdays results affect next years elections in N.J.?
Next years elections in New Jersey will focus on the state Legislature, which Democrats have controlled for more than two decades. But Republicans chipped away at that last year, gaining seven seats. And the question now is whether they can channel more momentum over the next 12 months.
Democrats have been on the defensive in recent months, aiming to put the focus on affordability issues. Expect that to continue, especially if Republicans take power in the U.S. Senate and/or House.9. Will the results affect Bidens decision to run again (something Christie, Murphy and Booker are all watching)?
Governor Phil Murph's future could depend on Tuesday's elections. Dave Hernandez | For NJ Advance
Biden has said it is his intention to seek a second term, but what happens Tuesday may influence his final decision on 2024.
Thats a situation a few top politicians are watching closely in New Jersey. Like Gov. Phil Murphy, a potential candidate if Biden decides not to run. Or a fellow Democrat, U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, who tried and failed in 2020 but could run again. And former Gov. Chris Christie, who could take another shot at the Republican nod.
Plus, if Tuesdays results dampen the outlook for Democrats in the coming years, it could give an edge to the next Republican candidate for governor in New Jersey. The opposite could boost Democrats seeking to succeed Murphy, who cant run for a third straight term. That race isnt until 2025, but itll be a big one, so expect the speculation to start early.
Check out our coverage of Campaign 2022:
The fight for America begins in N.J. As our hottest congressional race goes, so may the nation.
Voter anger over abortion rights could be big wild card in N.J. and nation at Biden midterm
Can Republicans grab multiple N.J. congressional seats on Election Day? Heres where it may happen.
The Lands of Oz
Where N.J. congressional candidates stand on inflation, abortion and other big issues
Wow! Check out how much money is being spent on N.J.s hottest congressional race.
Whats driving these Latinas to the N.J. polls this midterm election? Not the reasons you think
In this N.J. GOP stronghold, will a racism scandal matter to voters?
Are you surrounded by Democrats or Republicans? How N.J. breaks red and blue in all 21 counties.
A year after Murphys election scare, N.J. Dems are clearly worried going into Tuesdays midterms
Politics and polarization fire up N.J. school board races
Everything you need to know about N.J. midterm elections Tuesday, including all House races
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Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him at @JDSalant.
Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him at @johnsb01.